Gut first.

1. 1Your gut answers first, in a second or two, before your reasons can bend it.
2. 2Then your head takes its time and names one reason.
3. 3Then your heart says how much you want it, kept apart from how likely it is.
4. 4Your final number comes last, and you see how far you moved from your gut.
5. 5When a forecast resolves, each read is scored against what happened, so you learn which one to trust and when.
6. 6The order draws on ideas from Daniel Kahneman, Annie Duke and Philip Tetlock.