# Calibrated human judgment

A person who says 70 percent should be right about 7 times in 10. That is calibration. Most people are not calibrated at first, and get better quickly when they see how their numbers compared with what happened.

Ambient Precision stores every forecast, asks "Did it happen?" when it is due, and scores each read (gut, head, final) with a Brier score. Over time a person learns which of their reads to trust, and for which kinds of questions.

The idea draws on work by Philip Tetlock (forecasting), Annie Duke (decision quality versus outcome) and Daniel Kahneman (fast and slow thinking). Credit by name only; the method here is ours.